kharif operations to proceed in full steam. But, as per latest indications, there is little chance of this happening in a matter of days and the reckoning is that the monsoon may strengthen by the middle of this month.
Already, the lacklustre rainfall performance in June has impeded the sowing of the main crop — paddy. As per latest data, the crop has been sown in 30.72 lakh hectares compared with last year's 41.5 lakh hectares and coarse grains in 10.42 lakh hectares (22.05 lakh hectares). The acreage under pulses and oilseeds are also down relative to the previous season.
But, the peak of sowing operations is in the weeks ahead when rainfall is crucial. So, as of now, there has been a setback but the need to press the panic button will be determined by how the monsoon behaves in the next fortnight or so. However, the omens are not good.
What is beyond doubt is that the rainfall statistics for June 2012 paint a gloomy picture of the progress of the monsoon. The quantum of rains for the month, at 115.5mms, is the among lowest, with the exception of 2009 when it had dropped even lower to 85.1mms.
In terms of spatial distribution too, the past month has been disappointing. Barring the eastern and north-eastern regions, where the rains were almost on a par with the long-period average, in the other three regions, the deficit in precipitation was substantial – 69% below normal in the North-west region, 39% below normal in Central India and 29% below normal in the southern peninsula.
But it should be noted that, as a percentage of the total rainfall during the four months ending September that comprise the south-west monsoon season — 887.5mms — for a mere 18%.
Thus, the heaviest monsoon months lie ahead and therefore, the coming weeks are critical for sowing and proper germination of the kharif crop. If we go by the second state forecast of the India Meteorological Department –issued when the truant monsoon in June was already known - this month and in August, copious rains are in store – 98% of the normal in July and 96% of the normal in the following month. More than ever, one hopes, this prediction is proved right.
It is also worth noting that, though the June rains in the North-west region showed a high deficit of 69%, the long period average for the month for this region is only 69.4mms. Therefore, no undue concern over lack of rains at this point is warranted.
The spread of the rainfall even in these four regions was not very satisfactory in June. In the East & North-east, which comprises seven divisions, despite the gratifying overall picture, there were three divisions which had received deficient rains; in the North-west, all the nine divisions have had below normal rains while in Central India, as many as nine out of the total of 10 divisions were deficient or scanty in the quantum of precipitation. In the southern peninsula, six out of 10 divisions had reported deficient rains.